Where things stand (August 24, 2026): the economic campaign now has a name of its own. On Monday, August 24, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast and OFAC designated more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels linked to Iran's nuclear and missile procurement, its cyber operations and its oil revenue. The stated goal, in Bessent's words, is to "sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone." The line aimed outward was shorter: "No one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions." * The designations are the headline; the sectoral determinations are the actual weapon. Treasury opened five areas to secondary sanctions — digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping — which means the exposure is no longer limited to Iranian firms. Any foreign bank, exchange, refiner, insurer or shipping agent operating in those five lanes is now inside the blast radius. Trump framed it directly, warning that any nation offering Iran "any type of lifeline" would face "tremendous economic consequences," and NBC News reported he spent the day phoning world leaders with specific requests to cut trade with Tehran. * The gap between that plan and the map has not closed. China has historically taken about 90% of Iran's oil exports, and Beijing had already answered this exact proposal on August 21 through foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, who said sanctions and pressure are not the solution. A secondary-sanctions regime is a machine for making third countries choose. The largest third country said no before the machine was switched on. * Tehran's reply moved from mockery to the shipping lane. Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said that if the campaign continues, "not a single drop of oil" would pass through the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, and described participation by any country as "an act of war." Iran also threatened to seize vessels it deems in violation of transit rules there (CNBC, August 24, 2026). A day earlier, Iranian state media had called the sanctions an "implicit admission of the enemy's humiliating defeat" — the two statements do not sit comfortably together, and both were issued anyway. * Two numbers are worth holding next to each other. Iran's rial fell to a record low of roughly 2.02 million per US dollar on August 24, 2026, which is what the pressure looks like from inside Iran. And the AAA national average was around $4.10 a gallon on August 20, up nearly a dollar year-on-year, which is what it looks like from an American forecourt. The war that began in February 2026 is nearing six months old. The instrument keeps changing names — Economic Fury in April, Economic Outcast in August — while the theory underneath stays the same one that has not yet produced a deal. * Where things stand (August 22, 2026): with the June memorandum expired and no talks scheduled, the administration has switched weapons. The campaign it calls Operation Economic Fury — running since April — is being widened into a full secondary-sanctions push: not just sanctioning Iran, but sanctioning anyone who trades with Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it about as plainly as it can be put: "If you insist on doing business with them, then the U.S. Treasury and U.S. government will put its full might and force against you." Several outlets headlined the threat as an "economic D-Day" (CNBC, August 19, 2026; AP, August 21, 2026). * Read the target list and the problem announces itself. The countries still buying Iranian crude at scale are China and India. Sanctioning either of them is not a sanctions decision, it is a foreign-policy decision with its own bill attached — and Beijing answered the same week. At the foreign ministry's regular briefing on August 21, 2026, spokesperson Lin Jian said sanctions and pressure are not the solution and only produce escalation that serves no one, and called for dialogue instead. Bloomberg reported the same rejection a day earlier. A secondary-sanctions regime works by making third countries choose; this one got its answer from the largest third country before it was even fully written. * Tehran's own response was almost bored, which is the point it was making. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted: "We have seen this movie before. Same bull. Different bullies." Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran "has demonstrated over decades that it will not be strangled by these exhausted refrains" (AP, August 21, 2026). Iran has spent most of the last two decades under some version of maximum pressure. That does not mean the new round will not hurt — Iranian crude exports had already collapsed by 94% in the week of August 3, per Kpler data — but it does mean the theory of victory here is the same theory that has not worked yet. * And the cost is not confined to Iran. AAA's national average was around $4.10 a gallon on August 20, 2026, and CNN's live coverage that day framed it simply: US gas prices up nearly a dollar from a year ago, Hormuz traffic still on the floor. Six months into a war that started on February 28, 2026, the economic front is where the ordinary reader is actually enlisted — one tank at a time, at a price nobody was asked to vote on. * Where things stand (August 17, 2026): the deadline arrived and did what deadlines in this war keep doing — nothing. The 60-day memorandum of understanding signed in June, covering the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme, lapsed on Monday with no deal, no extension and no announced consequence. Asked whether he wanted more time, Trump said he was not seeking an extension (The Times of Israel, August 17, 2026). File it next to the ceasefire that collapsed in July: the documents in this conflict have expiry dates, not enforcement mechanisms. * The most quotable moment of the day was pointed at a mediator. Speaking by phone to Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst, Trump said that if Oman "gets in the way" of Washington's dealings with Iran, "we'll bomb the s--- out of them" (NBC News, August 17, 2026). Oman is not a party to the war. It is the strait's southern coastal state, a long-standing back channel between Washington and Tehran, and the venue where the transit-route talks have been running. Threatening it is a statement about who gets to write the map, and it lands three days after Trump said he would be declaring the strait "a territory of the United States." * Tehran's answer was to announce agreement with the country that had just been threatened. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that an understanding had been reached with Muscat "regarding the map of the transit route," to be finalised as a package of map plus joint statement (The Times of Israel, August 17, 2026). Whether or not that understanding survives contact with the US Navy, it is a diplomatic frame worth noticing: Iran positioning itself as the party doing bilateral shipping arrangements with a neighbour, while Washington is the party threatening to bomb one. * Underneath the rhetoric, the water is empty. Kpler data reported by The National on August 17, 2026 tracks crossings from a peak of 275 in the week of June 24 to 98 in the week of August 3 — a 64% fall — and then into single digits over the weekend: 12 on Friday, 5 on Saturday, 3 on Sunday. Iranian crude exports fell from 1.545 million barrels a day in the week of June 29 to 91,900 barrels a day by the week of August 3, a 94% collapse. About 520 commercial vessels are sitting in the Arabian Gulf waiting, and Kpler's Ana Subasic estimates six to eight weeks to clear the backlog even after a reopening. * That last number is the one to hold on to while reading coverage of who is winning. Both governments are describing the strait as something they command — Trump's "no ships get through unless we want them to," Iran's "will only be closed and opened under Iran's command." The shipping data describes something neither of them is claiming: a waterway that roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil normally passes through, running at three vessels a day, with the bill going to crews stuck at anchor and to every economy downstream of the tanker. * This page is a running timeline of the 2026 US–Iran conflict — how it started, the two ceasefires it has already burned through, and what's happening right now. We update it as events move; the "Updated" date at the top tells you how fresh it is. * Where things stand (August 16, 2026): the ownership fight has now been claimed from both ends. A day after Trump said he would declare the Hormuz Strait a US territory, Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi answered with the mirror-image sentence — "the Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian" — and said the waterway "will only be closed and opened under Iran's command," telling Washington to "cease your fanciful delusions" while Iran keeps enforcing its closure (Euronews, August 15, 2026). Trump's version of the same map is a blockade: "We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to." Two governments are describing the same water as their own property, and neither description mentions Oman, which actually shares jurisdiction over it. * The cost of that argument keeps being paid by crews. On Thursday evening, August 14, two vessels belonging to ADNOC — the UAE's state oil company — were attacked while transiting the strait. No one was injured this time, but the running total is the number to hold onto: ADNOC says 15 of its ships have been attacked in the strait since the war started in February 2026. The UAE foreign ministry called it "piracy" and "a direct threat to the stability of the region, its peoples, and the global energy supply." Iran did not immediately comment (Al Jazeera, August 14, 2026). The strait normally carries roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade; right now it mostly carries risk premiums. * Where things stand (August 15, 2026): the war produced its strangest sentence yet, and it was about property. On Friday, August 14, speaking to law-enforcement officials at the Nassau County Police Academy on Long Island, Trump said that "after we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States" (Al Jazeera, August 14, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz is bordered by Iran and Oman, which share jurisdiction over it; roughly 20% of global oil supply used to move through it. Legal experts told Al Jazeera that charging tolls on commercial traffic there would breach international law, which protects free maritime transit through such waterways — and a declaration of ownership is a considerably larger claim than a toll. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi replied in one line worth quoting in full: "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be taken over by a tweet, nor by an aircraft carrier, nor by issuing a decree, nor by an election speech. Iran is neither afraid of threats nor intimidated by a show of force." Note the escalation ladder inside the language itself: on July 14 the proposal was a 20% toll in exchange for US naval protection. A month later the proposal is sovereignty. * Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier Gharibabadi mentioned is having a bad month of its own. The USS Abraham Lincoln crossed **207 consecutive days at sea** in July 2026 — a record for that ship — on a deployment now in its ninth month, with US Central Command describing sailors and Marines aboard as resilient after more than 260 days at sea. Families of crew members have told NBC News and CBS News about shortages of food, soap and toothpaste, disrupted mail, plumbing and water problems, and worsening mental health. On August 12, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier reports "completely misrepresented" conditions and that the Pentagon gives every ship "everything we can provide them at every single moment." On August 14, acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao took a different tone: "a small number of mental health cases were treated with no loss of life," and "war is hell and normal routines are disrupted." The Navy is sending additional resiliency counselors and social workers to a ship that already carries five chaplains, a clinical psychologist, a clinical social worker, three behavioral health technicians and a facility dog (Task & Purpose, August 14, 2026). Lawmakers have demanded answers, and CNN reported on August 13 that a sailor went overboard from the Lincoln. Separately, Iranian media claimed seven US sailors were killed in a brawl aboard the carrier; Central Command denied it and fact-checkers found no supporting evidence (Snopes, August 13, 2026) — that claim should not be repeated as fact, and it is worth noticing how a genuine, well-documented story about supplies and morale gets muddied the moment an unverifiable casualty number is attached to it. * Where things stand (August 12, 2026): forget the mediation language for a second and count the boats. **Ten vessels** went through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, August 10. Before the war, about **130 a day** did (Al Jazeera, August 12, 2026). That is the strait being 92% shut while the president of the United States says it is open, and it is the number every trading desk is actually pricing. Brent climbed more than 2% overnight to **$89.53** for October delivery, about **24%** above its late-February level (Al Jazeera, August 12, 2026). The International Energy Agency's August report, out the same day, put the damage in barrels: global supply down **4.3 million barrels a day** this year, demand down 1.6 million, **410 million barrels** drawn out of storage since the war started, and Middle East production running **8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels** in July (IEA, via Hydrocarbon Processing, August 12, 2026). The IEA also listed the causes in one line — the Hormuz shutdown, the US blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in Bab el-Mandeb, and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports — which is a useful reminder that this is now four overlapping disruptions, not one. And the fourth is still generating bodies: Houthi fighters hit a commercial ship in Bab al-Mandeb on Tuesday, killing six, including two members of its security detail, while US Central Command disabled a Panama-flagged cargo vessel it said was trying to run the blockade of Iranian ports (Al Jazeera, August 12, 2026). Qatar says the Oman–Iran track is "at an advanced stage." A senior Iranian source told Reuters the same week that on the ceasefire there is "nothing to extend" (Reuters, via CNN, August 12, 2026). Both statements can be true, because they are about different negotiations — which is exactly the confusion that keeps "close to a deal" headlines running for a fifth straight week. * Where things stand (August 11, 2026): the diplomacy is being narrated by a third country. Pakistan's defence minister Khawaja Asif told reporters in Islamabad that "the signals in the last two to three days are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement," and that "things are shaping up in favor of peace" — without naming a single term of it (Bloomberg, August 11, 2026). On the same day Pakistan's interior minister Mohsin Naqvi flew to Tehran (Fars, via Bloomberg). Note who is not saying this: neither Washington nor Tehran has announced an arrangement, and Iran's own foreign minister has spent the week insisting that the separate Iran–Oman talks on shipping routes are technical, not a reopening (NBC News, August 9, 2026). Brent settled the day around $88.43, up about 0.8% — a market that has heard optimistic mediation language before and prices it accordingly (Trading Economics, August 11, 2026). The strait itself has been shut to ordinary traffic since March. * Where things stand (August 7, 2026): the map around Iran changed shape today. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement in Mecca — Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the room together — containing a clause that any armed attack on any one of the three "shall be regarded as an attack against them all," according to Pakistan's foreign ministry. That is NATO's Article 5 wording, transplanted. A Turkish official told Reuters the pact is defensive, is not aimed at any specific actor, is open to other regional countries, and replaces nothing already in force. A source close to the Saudi government told AFP the agreement had been under discussion for a long time and that "recent developments in the region accelerated the process" (Reuters, Jerusalem Post, Euronews, August 7, 2026). * Read the two sentences together and you get the real story. Nobody is naming Iran, and everybody knows the timing. One of the three signatories is a nuclear-armed state; the other two are hosting and mediating the talks meant to end this war. Whether the pact is a hedge against Tehran, against an unpredictable Washington, or simply against being alone next time, it commits three governments to each other in a way that did not exist yesterday — and it happened while a US–Iran deal was supposedly hours from announcement. * On August 6, 2026, that deal came within a day of landing. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan — Turkey has been helping mediate — said "God willing, the negotiations between the United States and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz will conclude today," with what he called good news, adding that an agreement was needed to keep oil prices down. Fidan said the mechanism and duration were still being worked out, and that a 60-day period allowing oil shipments through was on the table as a bridge to a permanent arrangement. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran and Oman had agreed the geographic coordinates of a route ships would use, after three weeks of talks, and that a joint statement would follow provided there were no disruptions from what he called "certain third parties." Oman said nothing. Iran continued to deny it was talking to the United States at all (NPR, August 6, 2026). * Keep that denial in view. Trump says talks with Iran are going well; Iran says there are no talks. Both can be technically true if everything runs through Muscat and Ankara, which is precisely the arrangement being described — and it is why a deal can be "hours away" for three consecutive days without arriving. * Where things stand (August 5, 2026): the shooting has not stopped, but for three days the centre of gravity has been a negotiating table in Muscat rather than a target list. Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari described the talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz as being in "very progressive stages," after a series of calls between US envoy Steve Witkoff, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. Axios, citing two regional sources and a US official, reported that Washington was aiming to announce a deal on August 5; draft language had been circulated among the parties. Trump said his administration had held "very good discussions" with Iran (Axios, New York Times, Reuters, compiled by Just Security, August 5, 2026). * The threat did not go anywhere, though. On the same day, Trump said the strait would be reopened "soon" — or he would launch a new attack on Iran (CNN, August 5, 2026). It is the same structure the whole month has run on: an offer and an ultimatum delivered in one breath, which is exactly why every "deal is imminent" headline since February has been worth reading with the announcement date attached. * One number cuts against the ultimatum. On August 4, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States has used "virtually all" of its global stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles over the course of the campaign, according to sources familiar with the assessment — with one source noting the US can resupply. A statement from Trump pushed back, saying the US has "far more munitions than anyone in the world" (Reuters, August 4, 2026). Whichever figure holds, it reframes the diplomacy: a threatened strike is only as credible as the magazine behind it. * Meanwhile the war widened at the other end of the Arabian Peninsula. On August 5, 2026, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had hit the Saudi oil tanker Wafa with several ballistic missiles in the northern Red Sea off the port of Yanbu, saying the missiles struck "accurately." By the group's own count it is the eighth Saudi tanker targeted since it declared a "blockade for blockade" campaign against Saudi Arabia on July 22, 2026 (TradeWinds, Middle East Monitor, August 5, 2026). The claim comes from the Houthis and has not been independently verified. The practical effect is that the two chokepoints matter at once: even a reopened Hormuz does not restore normal shipping if the Red Sea leg is being shot at. * Where things stand (August 3, 2026): for the first time since February, the story is a deal rather than a target list. On Saturday, August 2, 2026, Trump said he would order American forces to hold off on the new strikes he had been threatening, after Mideast allies reached what he called the outlines — elsewhere the parameters — of an agreement to end the war (AP, August 2, 2026). He was blunt about what he had shelved: a plan was in place for US forces to carry out "the biggest attack since World War II" on Sunday, and he scrapped it. Speaking on Air Force One, he credited a Saturday phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: "I said to the crown prince, 'What would you rather do? Would you rather us do this or not?'" Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all pushed for the halt, and Trump said unnamed Iranian officials had asked for it too. * What is reportedly in the outline: the Strait of Hormuz reopens; Iranian-backed militias stop attacking targets in Iraq, the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan; the United States ends its naval blockade and lets Iran export its oil again; and American concerns about Iran's nuclear programme are addressed. Read as a trade, that is Iran's two levers — the strait and the militias — against Washington's two — the blockade and the oil ban. * The part that should keep expectations low: Iran has not confirmed the headline term. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the strait "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th," and that there are no current talks about reopening it at all — only discussions with Oman about shipping routes. Iran's defence minister said the country remains "neither surprised nor passive" in the face of US threats. Israel, which has spent this war in the room, did not publicly comment on the announcement. And as of August 2 nothing on the water had actually changed: the strait was closed, the blockade was on, and the tanker strikes of the previous week stood unanswered by anything except a promise of talks the following afternoon. * So the honest summary is that this is the third time this war has produced a pause worth reporting, and the previous two both collapsed - the July 25-27 hold lasted three days. What makes this one different is that it is the first pause attached to terms rather than to exhaustion. What makes it fragile is that one of the two belligerents has publicly rejected the term the other one leads with. * Where things stood (August 1, 2026): the land campaign went quiet and the sea campaign got louder. There were no new US strikes on Iran overnight from Thursday into Friday, July 31 — the first still night since the July 29–30 "heavy wave" — but the IRGC said its forces hit two oil tankers in the early hours of that same Friday, saying the vessels had tried to cross the Strait of Hormuz on routes Tehran had not authorised, and that four more tankers changed course after the strikes (Washington Times, July 31). By Saturday, August 1, the UK Maritime Trade Operations desk had logged two fresh incidents: a vessel struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Lima, Oman, with engine-room damage and no injuries, and a tanker northeast of Khasab, Oman, reporting a large splash and explosion close by (Euronews, August 1). CENTCOM's position has not moved — Iran does not control the strait, US forces are there to keep navigation free, and it has run hundreds of strikes at Iran's ability to threaten shipping. Iran's position has not moved either: the strait is closed, and safe passage means coordinating with the IRGC Navy. Kuwait, meanwhile, said it destroyed "hostile drones" over its territory on the morning of July 31 and blamed "Iranian aggression" against vital and military sites; debris caused material damage, nobody was hurt, and the army declined to say how many drones or which installations (Xinhua, Oman Observer). In Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is "searching for Iranian assets all around the world, and that money will go to the Iranian people." And Trump, asked on July 31 whether Iran was close to folding, gave the closest thing to a compliment he has offered in five months: "Most people would have given up by now… They haven't, so I give them credit for that. They're tough." Markets read all of it the obvious way — Brent rose more than 1% on the day and finished July up around 23%. * Where things stood (July 30, 2026): the three-night hold collapsed inside 24 hours of being reported, and the war that resumed is wider than the one that paused. On July 28 the IRGC fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan at 5:45 p.m. ET — a US air base and what Tehran described as a CENTCOM headquarters. CENTCOM called it an "attempted surprise attack" and said every missile was intercepted with no American casualties. Trump's response to Fox News was four words: "We'll be hitting them hard." He did. Overnight on July 29–30 US forces ran what the military called a "heavy wave" of strikes against dozens of IRGC targets, with explosions reported at Bandar Abbas, Kish, Qeshm, Bushehr, Abadan and Ahvaz. On Qeshm Island a missile hit a residential building and killed three people including a two-year-old child, according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB. The IRGC has promised that "the aggressor will be punished today," and by Thursday morning Jordan had intercepted five more missiles while a strike on a Chinese company's building in Kuwait killed a worker. The most consequential change is not the tonnage, though — it is the map. On July 29, Saudi Arabia flew joint strikes with the US against Iran-aligned groups across seven Iraqi provinces after months of refusing to be pulled in; Iraq's PMF says 20 of its fighters were killed and 32 wounded, and Baghdad called it a flagrant violation of its sovereignty. Egypt's Damietta port was hit by drones the same day. Five months in, the list of countries with something burning on their territory keeps getting longer, and nobody on either side is currently pretending a deal is close. * Where things stood (July 27, 2026): for the first time since July 8, the shooting has stopped — provisionally. Three nights have now passed without US strikes on Iran or Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, after a run of 13 consecutive nights of bombardment. Nobody is calling it a ceasefire; the Pentagon's word, via a source who spoke to CNN, was "hold." Trump's UN ambassador Mike Waltz framed it as giving diplomacy "some space." The substance being negotiated is narrower and more concrete than anything on the table earlier in July: not who owns the Strait of Hormuz in principle, but a working compromise in which Iran administers vessel transit while easing the restrictions it imposes on ships — a formula Tehran has been developing with Oman. Iran had already turned down a US offer relayed by the Iraqi prime minister, on the grounds that a temporary truce leaving the strait question open just resets the clock. The reason both sides may now want the pause is sitting in the oil market: the war opened a second front at the Red Sea on July 25, when the Houthis hit Aramco's Jizan and Yanbu facilities and set the Jizan refinery alight, and Brent went back through $100 a barrel. With Hormuz shut and Yanbu under fire, Saudi Arabia's two export routes were being squeezed at once. * Where things stood (July 21, 2026): the shooting has not stopped and the diplomacy has not died — they are now running at the same time. US strikes have run night after night since July 8, three American service members were killed over the July 18–19 weekend, and Washington is moving more fighter jets and refuelling aircraft into the region. In parallel, four mediating governments have tabled a 10-day ceasefire built entirely around reopening both lanes of the strait, plus a face-saving formula that would let Iran charge service fees rather than a toll. Neither capital has said yes. The background, unchanged since mid-July, is below. * Where things stood (July 14, 2026): the fight has moved from strikes-and-counterstrikes into an open fight over the Strait of Hormuz itself — and, increasingly, over money. On July 14 Trump reimposed a US naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports (effective 4 p.m. ET) and went a step further, demanding a 20% toll on the value of all cargo transiting the strait in exchange for US "protection," posting that America would be "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." Analysts estimate that toll at around $34 million for a single supertanker voyage and roughly $16 on a barrel of oil; the UN's maritime agency says there is "no legal basis" for mandatory tolls, and even Iran's foreign minister — while agreeing safe passage should be paid for — called 20% "too much." It came a day after the IRGC struck two UAE-linked tankers, the al-Bahiya and the Mombasa, in the southern strait, killing an Indian crew member, and after the US launched a third straight night of strikes. Oil hit a one-month high, with Brent up about 4.3% to roughly $86.85 a barrel, and Kpler reports strait traffic collapsing — 14 vessels on July 12 versus 37 a week earlier. As of July 18, the Associated Press assessed that the June deal has fully collapsed and a return to all-out war "appears increasingly likely," with Oman's proposal to split the strait into two separately controlled routes now the main diplomatic lifeline (AP/NPR, CNN). * The full timeline: - February 28, 2026 — The US and Israel launch massive airstrikes on Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials and destroying military and government targets. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones against Israel, US bases and US-allied states — and closes the Strait of Hormuz, choking a fifth of the world's oil trade. - March 2026 — Fighting continues for over five weeks. Global shipping reroutes around the Gulf; flights across the Middle East are disrupted. - April 7–8, 2026 — A first ceasefire is agreed between the US, Iran and Israel. Washington and Israel assert it does not cover Lebanon; Israel launches its largest strikes of the war against Hezbollah targets there, killing at least 357 people. - April 12, 2026 — The Islamabad Talks between the US and Iran collapse. The conflict settles into brinkmanship over access to the Strait of Hormuz. - June 14–17, 2026 — Mediators announce a memorandum of understanding intended to formally end the war within 60 days. Trump signs it at the Palace of Versailles — during dinner with Emmanuel Macron after the G7 summit — and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signs on his side. - Early July 2026 — The deal's soft spot gives way. Point 5 of the memorandum says Iran will "make arrangements… for the safe passage of commercial vessels" and will engage with Oman "to define the future administration" of the strait. Iran reads that as Iran administering passage; Washington reads it as Iran stepping back. Iranian forces fire on vessels that don't comply with their directives. - July 8, 2026 — The US strikes roughly 90 sites across southern Iran. CENTCOM says the operation is meant "to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civil mariners in the Strait of Hormuz." - July 8–9, 2026 (overnight) — Explosions are reported around Bushehr — home to an Iranian nuclear power plant, where a provincial official says a US projectile hit the facility's perimeter area — and in Konarak, Bandar Abbas and other southern cities. In the north, the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge in Golestan province is hit, per Iranian media: it sits on the rail line linking Tehran's trade to China and Russia. - July 9, 2026 — Iran's military says it launched one-way attack drones at sites in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, and the IRGC claims 10 ballistic missiles were fired at a US command-and-control center and the Al-Azraq air base in Jordan. Iranian officials put the two-day toll from US strikes at 14 killed and 78 injured across five provinces. - July 10, 2026 — Trump says the US has agreed to continue talks with Iran, while confirming Washington has told Tehran the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Senior US officials spell out the condition: Iran must publicly state that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that ships crossing it won't be attacked. Tehran refuses — insisting the strait remain under its control and that it be allowed to charge ships moving through it, upending decades of treating the corridor as an international waterway. - July 11, 2026 — The IRGC Navy attacks the M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, firing what it calls a "warning shot" that hits and halts the vessel; Iran then declares the strait "closed until further notice." The US answers with a third round of strikes this week — hitting roughly 140 targets across Iran, per US officials. CENTCOM immediately disputes Iran's closure claim, saying the strait remains open to lawful transit. The same day, an Iranian delegation travels to Oman to continue ceasefire talks through mediators, the US Treasury sanctions an alleged Iranian financier, and Trump posts on Truth Social that a thousand "missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat" — after mourners at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral (the supreme leader killed in the February 28 strikes) carried signs calling for Trump's and Netanyahu's deaths. Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, inherits the standoff. Qatar and Oman continue mediating, on a clock Trump says is limited. - July 12, 2026 — The US launches another wave of strikes on Iran. Iran retaliates the same day, striking US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Oil prices jump in response: Brent crude rises 3.3% to $78.48 a barrel and US crude (WTI) rises 3.3% to $73.78 a barrel, reversing the price declines that had followed June's ceasefire (CNBC). - July 13, 2026 — In a five-hour mission the US hits targets across Iran — including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa and Bandar Abbas — using sea drones against Iran for the first time in the conflict alongside fighter aircraft and one-way attack drones, its third consecutive night of bombardment. The IRGC strikes back at sea, hitting two UAE-linked tankers — the al-Bahiya and the Mombasa — with missiles in the southern Strait of Hormuz while they were in Omani territorial waters; an Indian crew member aboard the Mombasa is killed and eight others (six Indian nationals and two Ukrainians) are injured. The IRGC says the tankers had switched off their navigation systems, ignored Iranian warnings and tried to pass through a "mined route." Separately, a US strike hits an agricultural water pumping station in Mahshahr, Khuzestan province, killing the facility's guard, Shaker Mohseni, and injuring four others — Iranian officials call it a strike on civilian water infrastructure. - July 14, 2026 — Trump reimposes a US naval blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports, effective 4 p.m. ET, and demands a 20% toll on the value of all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for US protection — posting on Truth Social that the US will be "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" and reimbursed "at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped." Analysts estimate the toll at around $34 million per supertanker voyage (The National) and roughly $16 on a barrel of oil (Fortune) — far above the $1–2 million per ship Iran had charged during its own blockade. The UN's maritime agency, the IMO, says there is "no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls"; Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says whoever provides safe passage should be compensated but "20% is of course too much." Oil hits a one-month high — Brent up about 4.3% to roughly $86.85 a barrel and US crude (WTI) above $80, the highest since June 15 — while Kpler reports just 14 vessels crossed the strait on July 12 (four of them crude tankers), down from 37 a week earlier. - July 15, 2026 — The US carries out another wave of strikes it says is aimed at protecting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and says it disabled an empty oil tanker heading toward Kharg Island — Iran's main oil-export terminal and an economic lifeline (CNN, July 15). Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets his Omani counterpart over the strait, and Oman drafts a tentative proposal to manage traffic through two separately controlled routes (CNN/NPR). - July 18, 2026 — A week on from the June deal, the Associated Press assesses that the agreement "has now collapsed," that both sides have crossed the red lines they set, and that a return to all-out war "appears increasingly likely," even as mediators keep trying to salvage talks (AP via NPR, July 18). - July 19, 2026 — The US begins a ninth consecutive night of strikes; Iran claims it launched a new wave of missiles in response (CNN). The Pentagon confirms three US service members killed over the weekend — two at a military base in Jordan and one in northern Iraq — and says unidentified remains were located in Jordan after a service member had been listed as missing in action. Trump says Tehran will pay for the deaths. A US official says Washington is increasing the number of fighter jets in the Middle East, and an Israeli source says dozens of US refuelling aircraft have arrived in Israel with more still incoming (CNN, Fox News, The Hill). - July 20, 2026 — CENTCOM says it completed another round of strikes at 9 p.m. ET, targeting Iranian military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defence systems, describing the aim as degrading Iran's ability to keep attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz (CENTCOM public release). Iranian state media report explosions at multiple locations. - July 20–21, 2026 — Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and Oman present the US and Iran with a 10-day ceasefire proposal: stop the fighting, reopen both Hormuz shipping lanes — the southern route through Omani waters free of Iranian attacks, the northern route through Iranian waters free of the US blockade — and use the window to rescue the June memorandum. Circulating variants include a "middle corridor" between Omani- and Iranian-controlled waters, and letting Iran charge "reasonable service fees" for maritime security and environmental services on the Strait of Malacca model, where Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore bill for specific services rather than levying a blanket transit toll. Neither Trump nor Tehran has accepted, and both look set on improving their leverage before committing (Axios; CNBC, July 21). Separately, the Houthis threaten shipping linked to Saudi Arabia (CNBC). - July 22–23, 2026 — The US strikes Iran for a 13th consecutive night, hitting military command centres, drone facilities and maritime capabilities. Trump tells Axios he is "considering a massive attack" that would be "bigger than ever before" and that he is "close to making a decision." Iran retaliates with drone attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, including Sheikh Isa Airbase in Bahrain; the IRGC also claims to have targeted an Amazon data centre in Bahrain. Yemen's Houthis attack two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, declare a blockade of Saudi ports and warn that Aramco facilities "could become a future target." Brent crude tops $100 a barrel (Al Jazeera, CNN, July 23). - July 23, 2026 — Iran rejects a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by the Iraqi prime minister. Iranian officials say Tehran is not interested in a temporary deal that leaves the question of control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. - July 24, 2026 — Brent crude falls about 4% to $96.78 a barrel and US crude (WTI) drops about 3% to $89.31 as diplomacy reappears. At the pump the damage is already done: US petrol prices are up 11 cents in a week and about 38% since the war began in late February. - July 25, 2026 — The war opens a second chokepoint. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree says the group fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at Aramco-linked facilities in Jizan, and ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Aramco facilities in Yanbu, describing it as retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on the port of Hodeidah and Kamaran Island. The Jizan refinery begins burning. Yanbu matters disproportionately: with Hormuz closed, it is Saudi Arabia's main remaining crude-export corridor. Brent surges back above $100 a barrel in early Saturday trading — around a 40% rise over the course of July (Washington Post, Al Jazeera, The National, Türkiye Today). - July 25, 2026 — The same day, the US military announces no new strikes on Iran for the first time in two weeks, ending a 13-night streak. A Department of Defense source tells CNN that operations are "on a hold" (CNN, July 25). - July 26, 2026 — A second consecutive night passes with no announced US strikes and no Iranian retaliation; Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait all report no attacks overnight. Tehran continues talks with Oman over the strait. Reporting on the emerging compromise says it centres on Iran running vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions imposed on ships (Al Jazeera, Fortune, NPR, July 26). - July 27, 2026 — A third night of quiet. US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz says Trump is "giving diplomacy some space" and "time." An Iranian army spokesperson announces Tehran has halted "retaliatory operations" in the region. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei says the talks have made progress and are continuing, and that discussions on managing traffic through the strait were "useful, and progress was made", with technical and political consultations ongoing (Euronews, CNN, July 27). * Why the strait keeps breaking the deals: every pause in this war has died on the same rock. The Strait of Hormuz is the leverage Iran held onto after losing its command structure in February — and "who administers safe passage" is not a detail either side treats as negotiable. With Trump now trying to turn US control of the strait into a paid toll booth, the fight is no longer only about who provides safe passage but who gets to charge for it. Until that clause has one meaning instead of two, expect every ceasefire to have an asterisk — and, as of July 14, expect the strikes to keep escalating on both sides while the two governments keep contradicting each other in public about whether the strait is even open, and now about who pays whom to cross it. * A note on sourcing: casualty figures and strike claims inside Iran come from Iranian officials and state-linked media and are labeled as such; US strike descriptions come from CENTCOM statements and US officials. Where the two sides' accounts differ, we say who's claiming what.