Published July 10, 2026 · Updated July 10, 2026 · 4 min read
Tracker
US–China Chip War Tracker: Export Bans, Rare-Earth Retaliation, and Where Things Stand
Nvidia's share of China's AI-chip market: over 90% in 2023 → roughly 50% by early 2026Jan 15, 2026 US rule: H200-class exports to China case-by-case, volume capped at 50% of US shipmentsLate May 2026: Blackwell-class chips need a license for any China/Macau-headquartered buyerChina's counter: rare-earth export licenses tied to advanced chipmaking; 10 US firms blacklisted June 22Sources: Federal Register/BIS rules, Nvidia SEC filings, MOFCOM announcements, CRS
TL;DR
Nvidia once held over 90% of China's AI-chip market; by early 2026 that share had fallen to roughly 50%, and the company has warned of a revenue hit of up to several billion dollars per quarter from export controls.
A January 15, 2026 US rule put H200-class AI chips under case-by-case licensing for China, with China-bound volumes capped at 50% of US shipments.
In late May 2026, Washington tightened again: Blackwell-class processors now require an export license for any buyer headquartered in China or Macau.
Beijing's counterweapon is rare earths: exports linked to advanced chipmaking (logic at 14nm or below, memory at 256+ layers) now need Chinese government licenses, and 10 US firms — including rare-earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth — were added to China's export-control list on June 22.
Both sides are digging in: the US keeps expanding controls, while China mandates that a growing share of its AI computing run on domestic hardware.
📌The Full Picture
The US and China are fighting a trade war inside a single industry — the chips that run artificial intelligence — and this page keeps the running score. Who can sell what to whom, what each side just restricted, and where the leverage sits. We update it as the rules change; the "Updated" date at the top tells you how fresh it is.
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The shape of the fight: Washington controls the world's most advanced AI chips (Nvidia's, mostly) and wants to keep them out of Chinese hands. Beijing controls the processing of rare-earth elements the chip industry depends on and has learned to license them the way the US licenses chips. Each new restriction on one side gets answered by the other — usually within days.
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Recent timeline:
- May 2025 — The US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security assesses that Huawei's Ascend AI chips were developed in violation of US export controls.
- December 8, 2025 — Trump decides to permit sales of Nvidia's H200 — the most advanced AI chip legally available to China.
- January 15, 2026 — A Federal Register rule codifies the H200 opening with strings attached: case-by-case license review (instead of presumed denial) for chips including the H200 and AMD's MI325X, China-bound H200 volumes capped at 50% of US shipments, a 25% tariff routed via Taiwan, and US-supply certifications. The same rule introduces total-processing-power thresholds that fundamentally tighten what counts as a controlled chip.
- Late May 2026 — New US rules target Nvidia's most sophisticated processors, including the Blackwell series: any transfer to an entity headquartered in China or Macau now requires an export license.
- June 22, 2026 — Beijing answers with Announcement No. 23, adding ten American entities to its export-control list — including defense contractors (Ball Aerospace, Oshkosh Defense, L3Harris Maritime Services) and, pointedly, the US rare-earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth.
- Ongoing — China's Ministry of Commerce requires licenses for exports of Chinese-origin rare earths, or products made with them, when linked to advanced chip development — defined as logic chips at 14 nanometers or below, or memory with 256 or more layers.
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The scoreboard so far: Nvidia commanded over 90% of China's AI-chip market in 2023; by early 2026 its share had roughly halved, and the company has warned investors that export controls could cost it up to several billion dollars in a single quarter. On the other side, SMIC and Huawei are ramping up domestic AI-chip production with heavy state investment, and Beijing has imposed a domestic compute mandate — a growing share of Chinese AI workloads must, by rule, run on Chinese hardware.
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Why this page will keep growing: neither side's strategy works quickly. Export controls take years to bite; building a domestic chip industry takes longer. That means every few weeks brings a new rule, a new blacklist, or a new workaround — and each one lands right here.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the US–China chip war?
A running exchange of export restrictions in which the US limits China's access to advanced AI chips and chipmaking technology, and China retaliates with export controls on the rare-earth elements and critical minerals the chip industry depends on. It has escalated steadily since 2022 and sharply through 2025–2026.
Can Nvidia sell AI chips to China right now?
Partially. Under the January 15, 2026 rule, H200-class chips are reviewed case-by-case, with China-bound volumes capped at 50% of US shipments. Since late May 2026, Blackwell-class processors require an export license for any China- or Macau-headquartered buyer. Nvidia's share of China's AI-chip market has fallen from over 90% in 2023 to roughly 50% in early 2026.
What are China's rare-earth restrictions?
Exports of Chinese-origin rare earths — or products made with them — require a government license when linked to the development or manufacture of advanced chips, defined as logic at 14nm or below or memory with 256+ layers. On June 22, 2026, China also added ten US firms to its export-control list, including rare-earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth.
Is China catching up on chips?
It is trying to substitute rather than catch up outright: SMIC and Huawei are ramping domestic AI-chip production with state backing, and a government mandate requires a growing share of Chinese AI computing to run on domestic hardware. The US assessed in May 2025 that Huawei's Ascend chips were developed in violation of US export controls.